according to my online buddy Papaf his polling of the three parties ODM K, ODM O and PANUA shows that the race for presidency is very close.Here is the breakdown of candidates. these percentages are not excat but they are this close
Mwai Kibaki 44.2%
The numbers shows that incase kalonzo decides to support Kibaki unconditionally Kibaki will retain his seat and vice versa if kalonzo supports Raila.
How can ODM O ensure that KM defects to their side
Seeking reconciliation… I would urge Raila and his team to have a MOU with Kalonzo promising him a post in the next administration once he helps odm o to defeat kibaki. This position can even be the prime minister post.
IF KM fails to agree to this then the following should be done
Get someone else to establish a stronghold in Ukambani maybe request Ngilu to run for presidency. if Ngilu just manages to take 5% away from KM then the threat of KM defecting to Kibaki camp will be minimized.
Go back to court and try to reclaim ODM K