Monthly Archives: November 2012

What will the Kenyan voter do?


There is an almost an agreement that the “easiest way to mobilize” the Kenyan voter is appealing to the voter “primitive quest for tribal supremacy”. The adage that voters get the leaders is they deserve is self evident. the only time that Kenya has successfully held elections/referendum on issues are may be during early days of post independence where the parties of the time mobilized around national issues such and during the recent referendum. But in the last 20 years all political mobilization has been based on tribal arithmetic. The way this works is not rocket science it is simple “leaders” from tribes with high registered voters make pre-election pacts usually dictated by who can bring the biggest number of voters to the table. After this is accomplished the two/three dominant “tribal groupings” face off on propaganda wars mostly aimed at consolidation the tribal coalition and then the political consultants are brought in to dress the coalition as a serious party with real agenda for Kenya but if you peel the layers of this organization you find nothing but a cabal with them aim of “tribal supremacy”.

To remedy this Kenyans have tried several haphazard measures that are not well thought out. First during the last regime of Moi a constitutional amendement was put in place requiring that a leader will need 25% of votes from majority¬†of provinces of Kenya. the proposers of this amendent wanted to stiffle a situation where a tribal coalition can win an election by minority vote. this used to happen when then president would use his coalition of most “nomadic tribes” and other fringe tribes to get enough votes to win against other tribal coalition by a minority vote of less than 40% of the vote cast.¬† The 25% rule failed to correct this problem and so the political class decided to propose two more solutions requirement of 50% rule which is currently the law of land that is untested and requirement that a leader must garner 25%of all votes cast in the 47% counties the coming elections will the first test to this electroral law. The last solution was to

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