Raila path to presidency


Uhuru support is in two kenya regions central and rift Valley. Raila support is in the rest of the country however because of low turnout in these regions Raila cannot win without getting some votes from Uhuru political base. After crunching raw data based on IEBC register here is what Raila needs to win:

win All key other regions that is western, Nyanza, NEP, Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi and the take the following percentages in Central 2%, Rift Valley 20% and Upper Eastern 10%. Otherwise the elections will head to 2nd round in a statistical dead heat and may be then he can hope Mudavadi supporters and Some central voters will see the light and vote for him

As of now if the returns show Raila with over 20% in RV and 2% in central then Uhuru will have to climb Mt Kenya and conceed. For Uhuru all he needs is to keep his base intact and take 10% of Nyanza (gusii), get Easter 45%, win nairobi with 5% and get over 17% of Western vote

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